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Part I: Conflicts, Causes, and Economic Development
1 Introduction: Conflict and the International Development Agencies = 3
The Focus of International Attention: Full-Blown Crises and Their ...
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Part I: Conflicts, Causes, and Economic Development
1 Introduction: Conflict and the International Development Agencies = 3
The Focus of International Attention: Full-Blown Crises and Their Aftermath = 8
The Search for More Effective Prevention = 10
The Many Forms of Internal Conflict = 19
International Terrorism = 21
The Scope for Early Prevention = 25
Mandates and Competence for an Overdue Responsibility = 31
2 Conflicts Fought, Conflicts Avoided: Nine Cases = 44
Conflicts Fought: Aid Complicity = 45
Pakistan: Complicity of Donor Advice = 45
Rwanda: Donor Culpability = 51
Sri Lanka: Opportunities Taken, and Missed = 60
Yugoslavia: Economic Rights and IMF Responsibility = 70
Conflicts Contained, Conflicts Avoided: Some Aid Assists = 74
Malaysia: Conflict Prevention as the Political-Economic Core = 74
Thailand: Learning and Foresight = 82
Bhutan: Accommodation = 92
Mozambique: Preventing Conflict Recurrence = 93
Mauritius: Ethnic Power-Sharing and Economic Equity Without Preferences = 97
3 Development and Conflict: Connections and Precursors = 103
Development, Aid, and Conflict: The Peace Presumption = 103
Development-Conflict Connections: Exacerbation or Amelioration? = 109
Democratic Optimism = 124
Some Development Particulars: Illustrations of Conflict Effects = 127
Conflict Modeling and Prediction = 137
Getting from Causes to Interventions: Dense Reality versus Salient Focus = 146
The Fallibility of Conflict Forecasting = 150
Illusive but Real: Nonmaterial Motivations = 153
Conclusion: Multiple Causes Call for Multiple Interventions = 156
Part II: Toward an Agenda for Conflict Prevention
4 Relevance and Assessment = 165
Conflict Assessment = 168
5 Inducing Nonviolent Politics and Conflict Management = 176
Top-Down: Reengineering Politics = 176
Development of Civil Society = 181
Bottom-Up: Behavior Change and Civil Society = 185
6 Economic and Sector Policies: Reforms, Preferences, and Harmonization of Interests = 195
Across-the-Board Reform = 195
Privatization: Transfer of State Assets to Private Ownership = 201
Labor Market Liberalization = 205
Changes in Group Economic Rights = 206
Preference Policies = 207
Taxation = 215
Internal Resource Allocation = 217
Regional Preferences = 217
Choosing Among Alternative Projects = 219
Formal Education = 220
Language Policy = 223
Agriculture = 224
Civil Service Reform and Modernization = 225
Conclusion = 227
Postscript: Demobilization = 228
7 Persuasion, Leverage, and Sanctions = 232
The Role of Ideas: Against Utopianism, Triumphalism, and Ignorance = 232
Ordinary Development Research: Illuminating Frictions and Fictions = 235
Persuasion and Leverage = 236
Resource Allocation Among Countries: From Support to Withdrawal = 238
When Nothing Else Works: Sanctions = 243
Donor Coordination: Practical Obstacles = 246
Conclusion = 248
Selected Bibliography = 251
Index 257
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